Why is management silent in the face of stock market volatility-baxia

In the face of the fluctuation of stock market management the silence of sina finance (public opinion leader WeChat kopleader) causes columnist Wu Guoping to talk about the management suddenly silent, I think one is with the Commission within the current personnel turbulence more powerful stage caused by the vacuum effect; the two is the management of the new fuse since his strategy cautious, dare shot three; the key is also estimated in thinking is not to accumulate steadily, just waiting for the best time for a. No recent management in the market fell below 2850 points, and surprisingly calm, then the market will present the natural game, this natural game, cruel risks and opportunities are also prominent, important is through the trend of management, or the market itself natural game, we can see what? Why talk about the management suddenly silent, I think one is with the commission a vacuum phase influence the internal personnel turmoil brought more powerful; the two is the management of the new fuse mistake since the strategy was more cautious, dare shot also has a relationship; three is the key to estimate on is not to accumulate steadily, there is a saying not silent in the outbreak of death in silence, I think the final choice of managers must be broke out, just waiting for a best time. This time, my opinion is that during the Spring Festival or Spring Festival, during this period, pay close attention to the Commission, the central bank and the State Administration of Taxation and the State Council such as the management of a variety of dynamic, accumulate steadily, is also a kind of strategy. Well, we’ll talk about the natural result of market game, I believe we all see, appeared in January 26th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 7 points in the fierce fluctuation, it happened on Tuesday, for the market, quite suddenly, the management did not immediately sound, many stocks chose to broken down the result is also in at that time. This result, directly lead to early January 27th to sell, of course, also caused some hunters or participate in the rebound of funds, V volatility days. Well, then it is Thursday, January 28th, the trading day is a lot of private equity funds to consider liquidation risk control point in time, but also some panic disc most easily shake again time, good day, a lot of stock to sell, very fierce, but at the same time, we can also see that some stocks the relative trend of resilience. January 29th, Friday, the day in the absence of management issued positive stimulus, the internal market of active buying, the market did not sell directly to undertake Thursday Yin Yang package trend, on this day, many stocks have rebounded to your intention to show exhaustive. In February 1st, the new market on Monday, did not undertake Friday’s rise, showing differentiation pattern, sell appear in the afternoon, especially the face of some positions in the stocks, 2 to 2:30 Shadie climax, from 2:30 to 3, the market recovered, some resilience species recovered quite active land lost. A brief description of the above market game, want to tell you, now the market fell, the stock itself is not the key texture is how bad, but the market itself funds in the game, a lot of money to protect themselves.

面对股市波动管理层为何沉默   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 吴国平   先谈谈管理层突然沉默起来的原因,我想一是跟证监会内部目前人事动荡比较厉害带来的阶段性真空影响;二是管理层自从熔断认错后对新的策略更为慎重,不敢贸然出手;三最关键的是估计也在思考是不是要来个厚积薄发,只是在等一个最佳时机。   近期管理层在市场跌破2850点后,发现没有,出奇地冷静,然后呢,市场也就呈现自然博弈状态,这自然博弈,残酷的风险和蕴含的机会都同样突出,重要的是透过管理层的动向,还是市场本身的自然博弈,我们可以看到些什么呢?   先谈谈管理层突然沉默起来的原因,我想一是跟证监会内部目前人事动荡比较厉害带来的一种阶段性真空影响;二是管理层自从熔断认错后对新的策略更为慎重,不敢贸然出手也有关系;三最关键的是估计也在思考是不是要来个厚积薄发,有句话叫不在沉默中爆发就在沉默中死亡,我想最终管理层的选择肯定是爆发的,只是在等一个最佳时机吧。这时间,我的看法是春节期间或春节后,在这期间,密切留意证监会、央行、税务总局和国务院等管理层的各种动态,厚积薄发,也是一种策略。   好,我们再谈谈市场自然博弈带来的结果,相信大家都看到,1月26日出现了上证指数下跌近7个点的惨烈波动,那时候发生在周二,对市场而言,蛮突然,管理层也没马上发声,很多个股也就在那时候选择了再向下破位的结果。这结果呢,直接导致1月27日再早盘杀跌,当然,也同时引发了一些抄底或抢反弹资金的参与,日内出现V行波动。好了,然后1月28日,这是周四,这个交易日是很多私募基金要考虑平仓控制风险的时间点,同时也是一些恐慌盘最容易再动摇的时间点,好了,这天不少个股再杀跌,很惨烈,但与此同时,我们也可以看到,部分一些个股出现相对抗跌的走势。1月29日,周五,这天在没有管理层出台利好刺激下,市场内在出现主动买盘,市场没承接周四杀跌就直接来个阳包阴的走势,这一天,很多个股本身想做把反弹的意图展现无遗。2月1日,新的周一,市场没有承接上周五的上涨,呈现分化格局,杀跌出现在下午,尤其是一些遭遇平仓的股票,2点到2点半出现杀跌高潮,尾盘2点半到3点,市场收复失地,一些抗跌的品种主动收复相当失地。   描述上面市场博弈的简单状况,是想告诉大家,现在市场的跌,关键不是股票本身质地有多差,而是市场本身资金博弈的结果,很多资金为了自保,或被迫退一步导致的市场残酷杀跌,同时,相对跌不下去的票,或者跌了不少开始横盘的票,则又说明市场不少资金有点蠢蠢欲动反击一把的想法。其实,我想说的,市场本质上就是资金博弈,跌到一定阶段,市场就一定有可以博弈的点,比如一些个股短期跌了50%,比如一些次新股吧,拦腰斩半,短期发生的事情,对市场资金是很有冲击力的,杀跌的意味着到了阶段性要休息一下的阶段,判断是否杀跌力量减弱就看成交量和杀跌幅度是否小很多就是了,同时,对于做反攻的资金而言,跌一半也就意味着有做反攻的想法了,至少做把反攻正常情况下赢面很大,因为一反攻不怕没跟风盘。   好了,直接说结果吧,我想说的是,市场跌破2850点后自然博弈结果,我看到残酷的背后也看到不少机会,道理很简单,超跌就是力量,哪怕残酷杀跌的品种,一旦市场进入反弹周期,其反扑的力量也不容小视。那么,谁会成为急先锋呢?跌多了的会成为急先锋范围有点大,如果从板块细分来看,我比较侧重近期上市的新股,那些短期高位杀下来一半或接近一半的品种都是值得重点关注的,一旦反攻,容易形成板块效应,引领市场,所以,次新股板块我认为肯定是一股不容忽视的反攻力量。   还有,最大的力量当然是新兴产业,这里我认为则一定会有一些主题投资在反攻行情中脱颖而出的,为何我一直比较看好新兴产业。其实从近期我在新浪微博(吴国平财经)里分享的新闻我们也可以感知一二。比如:1、【深交所:创新型、成长型企业2015年业绩实现较快增长】2015年度创业板492家上市公司预计实现平均净利润1.16亿元至1.36亿元,同比增长19.2%至39.2%。其中,299家公司净利润同向增长,占比61%;30家基本持平,10家扭亏为盈,131家同向下降,22家亏损。2、【上海推出投资损失补偿办法吸引投资者】 上海推出的一项新措施规定,从本月开始,对投资机构投资种子期和初创期科技型企业项目所发生的投资损失,可按不超过实际投资损失的30%-60%给予补偿,以此吸引投资者。3、【路透:中国计划允许银行直接投资高科技企业将开展试点】据路透援引消息人士称,中国计划推出一个试点项目,允许部分经指定的商业银行建立股票投资载体,直接入股科技企业,此举旨在给予银行业者投资于高增长行业的机会,并展开与私募股权投资公司的竞争。   第一条新闻是实在的现实体现新兴产业是不错的;第二第三条新闻如果都最后落实的话,则是实实在在利好一些新兴产业的未来。有当下也有未来的,这板块能没有行情吗?也从一个侧面说明,现在中国未来就是需要新兴产业才能在经济复苏中突围!具体主题在哪里,我想说的是,市场反攻的时候自然会体现出来,比如前期有表现的虚拟现实吗,还有在线教育吗,还有量子通讯吗,很多很多主题,相信,市场一定会有个轮番炒作的过程,我们在其中好好踏准节奏就是。未来涨5倍十倍以上的个股我相信也必将在其中诞生!   最后,我想说的是,管理层当下的沉默或许是为了未来一次厚积薄发的爆发,至于市场自然博弈后带给未来的绝非风险,更多是机会,机会一是次新股板块,另外就是在新兴产业中去掘进,一旦市场回暖,类似前期易尚展示那样短期翻个5倍以上的个股,相信,市场一定还会再涌现出来的,为啥?人性使然,资本博弈使然,拭目以待吧。这就是我吴国平对市场当下的思考,这次就先谈到这吧,下次专栏,我们继续更多思考……   (本文作者介绍:财经评论家、阳光私募基金经理、财经类畅销书作家、广东煜融投资管理有限公司董事长。更多精彩尽在新浪微博 @吴国平财经 及微信公号:cjtgping)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章: