At present, China’s real estate bubble is unlikely to break-1256789

At this stage of the real estate bubble may break the little Chinese Sina Finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Jiang Rushan as long as the current ruling pattern unchanged, as long as the national economy does not collapse, fill in the real estate market bubble currency is unlikely to rupture. Why should we come to this conclusion? China’s special national conditions and special economic structure determine that the bubble of China’s real estate market is a "relative bubble"". At this stage, China’s real estate bubble is unlikely to break this summer, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shanghai and other cities "King" frequent, Shanghai is the most crazy – in August 18th, a day out of three kings. Some media said in awe, the real estate market and the land has become the core of the city, the capital of the hunting field. In the current domestic and international economic situation, the real estate market will continue to frequent the most expensive land? Will housing prices continue to rise? Welcome to zhuanlan@staff.sina, say your point of view!   is there any bubble in China’s real estate market? Yes, of course. And there’s a lot of bubbles. Since there is a bubble, when and under what circumstances will it break? As long as the current ruling structure remains unchanged, as long as the national economy does not collapse, the bubble of money in the real estate market is unlikely to break. Why should we come to this conclusion? This is because: China’s special national characteristics and special economic structure determines: the bubble of China’s real estate market is a "relative bubble"". First of all, we should understand one of the most basic economic common sense: an economy in the stage of rapid economic development, the market will inevitably have a larger scale of monetary investment, which is the premise to protect the economic cycle. Moreover, because of the serious economic structure of China, the central bank has to invest more money in order to protect the economic cycle. Therefore, the large-scale money market, much beyond the physical value (tentatively understood as beyond GDP), will naturally be flooded to all walks of life in the form of foam, and China’s real estate market at this stage is undoubtedly the most resilient, the most attractive market. Therefore, the strong purchasing power will greatly push up housing prices, and gather a large number of monetary bubbles. Secondly, it is necessary to recognize that China’s real estate bubble is a "relative bubble" rather than "rigid bubble", so it is more resistant to extrusion. How do you understand relative bubbles? On the one hand, one of the city’s housing prices basically depends on the city consumers’ purchasing power, while supporting the core elements of the purchasing power of the city’s level of productivity, that is to say, a city’s productivity level is higher, the economic cycle ability is strong, the housing price is higher; and when the housing price is really too high, to hinder the economic cycle, housing prices will fluctuate, but not a crash. Since the reform and opening up, China has been in a period of rapid economic development, although the slowdown in economic growth in the past two years, but still leading the world’s major economies, therefore, the real estate market agglomeration bubble is normal. People complain at the bottom of the society because the government does not 现阶段中国地产泡沫不大可能破   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 江濡山   只要现行执政格局不变、只要国民经济不崩盘,充斥于房地产市场的货币泡沫就不大可能破裂。为什么要下这个结论呢?中国特殊的国情特征和特殊的经济结构决定了:中国房地产市场的泡沫是一种“相对泡沫”。 现阶段中国地产泡沫不大可能破  这个夏天,南京、杭州、苏州、合肥、武 汉、郑州、上海等城市“地王”频出,上海最疯狂――8月18日一天连出三个地王。一些媒体惊呼,当前核心城市的房地产和土地市场,已经成为大资本的游猎 场。在当前的国内外经济形势下,房地产市场地王频现是否还会继续?房价飙升的趋势还会继续保持吗?欢迎发文到 zhuanlan@staff.sina,说出你的观点!    中国房地产市场到底有没有泡沫?   当然有,而且泡沫不少。   既然有泡沫,什么时候、什么情况下会破裂?   只要现行执政格局不变、只要国民经济不崩盘,充斥于房地产市场的货币泡沫就不大可能破裂。   为什么要下这个结论呢?这是因为:   中国特殊的国情特征和特殊的经济结构决定了:中国房地产市场的泡沫是一种“相对泡沫”。   首先,要明白一个最基本的经济学常识:一个处于经济快速发展阶段的经济体,市场必然会有较大规模的货币投放,这是保障经济循环的前提。而且,由于中国经济结构严重畸形,要保障经济循环,央行不得不投放更大规模的货币。因此,大规模的货币投放市场,大大超出实物价值(姑且理解为超出GDP),自然会以泡沫形式充斥到各行各业,而中国现阶段的地产市场无疑是最具有保值弹性、最具诱惑的市场。因此,强大的购买力,会大大推高房价,集聚大量货币泡沫。   其次,要认识到:中国的房地产泡沫是一种“相对泡沫”,而不是“刚性泡沫”,所以,抗挤压性较强。怎么理解是相对泡沫呢?   一方面,一个城市的房屋价格,从根本上取决于该城市消费者的购买力,而支撑购买力的核心要素是城市的生产力水平,也就是说,一个城市的生产力水平越高、经济循环能力越强,其房屋的价格就越高;而当房屋价格真的高得离谱,已经到了妨碍经济循环的程度,房屋价格就会产生波动,但不至于崩盘。改革开放以来,中国一直处于经济快速发展期,这两年经济增速虽然有所放缓,但仍领先全球各大经济体,因此,房地产市场集聚泡沫属于正常。社会最底层民众之所以有怨言,是因为政府没有把“保障性住房”这张牌打好。   另一方面,中国有十几亿人口基数,而且正处于城市化进程的中期,每年会有较大规模的刚性购房需求—这种刚性需求也有累积效应。这意味着,即使地产市场积聚了一定的泡沫,也会有远远不断的刚性需求在“虎视眈眈”。   上述两方面要素共存,决定了地产市场的泡沫是“相对的”,而不是“刚性的”。因此,对于那些总是叫唤“房地产市场泡沫快要崩盘的”的论调,暂时不必理会。   那么在什么情况下会发生地产泡沫破裂呢,并引发经济崩盘呢?这需要关注三个要素:   一是房屋产权人的持有属性结构。无论是商用地产还是民居地产,关键要看产权人自用房产规模大,还是出租给他人的规模大。做这方面商业数据分析的难度虽然较大,但是可以做出大致判断:产权人租用房产给他人使用的规模越大,地产价格泡沫就越脆弱,而中国现阶段购房者仍然以自用为主。   二是购房资金的信贷规模占比。地产与金融的关系几乎是“血脉相连”,但是,如果地产信贷用于购买的规模过大,房地产泡沫破裂的可能性就越大,因为金融资本的趋利特性与商业资本的趋利特性是连裆裤,很容易把地产价格吹起来,而且只要地产价格持续攀高,地产泡沫就会不断膨大。2008年全球金融危机,就是源自美国金融机构与“两房集团”合力过渡吹大了地产泡沫。好在中国政府对于进入资本进入地产领域,有较强的控制力,且房地产金融规模及杠杆比例比发达国家小很多。   三是城市的生产力水平及经济循环机能支撑一定水准的地产价格。为什么香港、深圳、上海、北京的房价奇高,而且交易活跃。根本问题还在于城市自身的生产力水平及经济循环功能较好。   搞清楚上述几大要素,就很容易明白地产价格泡沫破裂应“具备几个条件”:   1、房屋产权人用于出租房产规模较大;   2、潜入地产市场的金融资本规模较大;   3、超大规模的货币发行没有推动实体经济的繁荣与创新,而是变向进入各类或明或暗的“资金池”。   4、地产市场刚需规模出现递减。   在上述四个条件下同时存在的情形下,如果遭遇内部、或者遭遇外部金融危机的冲击,地产泡沫就容易被击碎。   (本文作者介绍:香港环球经济电讯社首席经济学家、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院访问学者、高级研究员,政府及财团大型投资项目顾问,产业项目风险及可行性评估专家。)相关的主题文章: